January was an excellent start to the year, the “January Effect” has been brought up excessively now and while the relief has been pleasant these dramatic fluctuations are excessive and I worry about the long term sustainability of this exuberance. I noted in our Yearly Outlook that we expect there to be a disconnect from the Economy and the Stock Market, S&P 500 Firms.
A Few Interesting Notes about this Market
The “January Effect” to us is a fluke: In the last 30 years 17 out of 30 Januarys have been “winners”, the other 13 have given a negative return, similar enough to tossing a coin, we believe the Effect to be rubbish.
Analysts have substantially lowered the Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates in the month of January, more aggressively than they have historically, we note that in these instances we expect a larger percentage of firms to beat estimates and provide investors with the initial impression of stronger returns.
The January Non-Farm Payrolls were unexpectedly strong, this received substantial attention, but the December number was revised up from 223K to 260K, wage growth was moderate at .3% (month over month) and the Unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%. This strong employment picture cements our view that more rate hikes will follow.
Tech Earnings were unpleasant but we believe that some big names are still undervalued (details to be discussed individually for those that are interested), we are concerned about the substantial run-up in some names and expect them to not be sustained long-term. We are Bullish on equities in 2023 but do not believe that this rate of growth will be sustainable.
Disclosures
We, Tim Marian and Wayne Stoneback, declare that any and all views and opinions which are expressed in this report are our personal views, which are not influenced by any consideration received from any party or client relationship. Shadowbrook Private Wealth LLC (“Shadowbrook”) is a registered investment advisor. This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any security. Shadowbrook provides investment advice to clients only after gaining a thorough understanding of the client’s financial situation, existing portfolio holdings and related information. This commentary includes information derived from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable but are not audited by Shadowbrook. Information is at a point in time and subject to change without notice. Please contact Shadowbrook with any questions you may have on this content or your accounts. Our research is intended solely for clients and/or individuals and/or corporations that have directly expressed an interest in working with Shadowbrook Private Wealth LLC or in our opinions on financial markets and securities. Please note that all research, opinions, and analysis are based on what we believe to be current public information. Any information, data, numbers, projections, forecasts, or estimates are based on the date hereof and are subject to change without any prior notice or notification. We retain the right to update our research on an irregular basis and declare that most reports are disseminated at irregular intervals. Please note: We directly invest in many of the securities which we research and publish opinions on. While we do not trade our assets the same day as any client accounts to avoid any possibility of front running, manipulation, or other inappropriate behavior, we are also direct investors in many of the holdings we cover. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security in any jurisdiction and does not constitute any kind of personal recommendation. Any analysis is meant to be educational and taken in the context of a larger investment theme that covers your personalized written financial plan. DO NOT MISCONSTRUE THIS FOR TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS. PLEASE SPEAK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE TRANSACTING IN ANY SECURITIES. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY! Please ensure that you speak to your tax professional to discuss any potential tax implications of transacting in various securities. The price and value of any investment vehicles mentioned in this report can and do fluctuate, please seek professional advice. Any past performance does not guarantee future results. Certain types of transactions involving derivative products also bear substantial risk and should only be used by experienced investors in the proper context. The appropriateness of any particular security or investment strategy will depend on the circumstances, education, experience, expertise, and financial plan of the individual. Investors should attentively read the prospectus and fund documents of any investment vehicle to understand the risk profile, objective, costs, and time horizon to gauge if they are appropriate for their individual circumstances. Diversification, Asset Allocation strategies, and Rebalancing strategies do not ensure profits or guarantee protection from loss of principal. Shadowbrook Private Wealth LLC and its representatives do not under any circumstances offer Tax, Legal, and/or Accounting advice or guidance of any kind.
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For US Investors only, Educational Material, Please read all disclosures, January/2023
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